Forum:2014 Pacific hurricane season/Ana
02C.ANA 91E.INVEST 0% for now, but it's expected to go into favorable conditions and has a 40% chance of developing in 5 days. Ryan1000 20:01, October 11, 2014 (UTC) :50/80. GFS has this hitting Hawaii as a hurricane. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 15:20, October 12, 2014 (UTC) ::It's now just about to enter the CPac and the Hawaiians might be threatened in the long run. Here comes Ana (or Trudy if it unexpectedly develops rapidly)!--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 17:13, October 12, 2014 (UTC) ::I guess Ana can't build a snowman because not only is Elsa ignoring her, she's above water :P leeboy100My Talk! 18:43, October 12, 2014 (UTC) :::Lol did you get that from the movie Frozen? :P Anyways, this invest is crossing into the CPac and it might become Ana.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 21:19, October 12, 2014 (UTC) :::Yep. Frozen. Also this has now crossed into the CPAC. should I change the header to say "CPAC" instead of "EPAC"? leeboy100My Talk! 21:48, October 12, 2014 (UTC) 95C.INVEST Nah Leeboy. However, this has been renumbered; now, instead of being called 91E, it's now 95C. We'll call it 91E-95C.INVEST. 'Ryan1000' 22:22, October 12, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression Two-C Actually I'm going to change the heading now anyway because according to Wunderground this is now a depression. Oh ,and we might want to watch this one because the forecast on there takes it to Hawaii ''as a category 1 hurricane. I want to remind everyone that Iselle was only a TS when it made landfall. If that track is correct we may have a third candidate for retirement. Yikes. leeboy100My Talk! 21:36, October 13, 2014 (UTC) : And the first hurricane to hit the Big Island, Iselle was so close to doing so herself earlier this year. Fourth canidate if you consider Norbert a possibility, but anyways Ana-to be isn't looking out to be a nice storm, Hawaii rarely sees hurricanes, having a hurricane hit at this time of year is even more unprecedented than having one hit the islands period. Wind Shear is low and SST's are warm, but the air is somewhat stable surrounding this system, which may hinder its chances of getting stronger than a minimal hurricane by the time it reaches the islands. Nonetheless, this is definitely one to watch out for. Ryan1000 22:29, October 13, 2014 (UTC) :: Yikes, this is not good, especially if Ana-to-be directly strikes Hawaii by the weekend like the CPHC is predicting. It should be Ana by tomorrow and I really do think we might see a retirement candidate from this lady.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:30, October 14, 2014 (UTC) ::::Eh, this should pass a bit east of the island group. Rhe GFDL and HWRF call for big time intensification, which appears likely, and move it NW rather than WNW. Hawaii should get some effects, but the core seems like it will stay offshore. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 02:59, October 14, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Ana Now named, the forecast track was adjusted to make it pass a little east of the islands, but it's still not expected to get stronger than C1, the environment is somewhat favorable but like I said before Ana does have some dry air to contend with, that'll lead to it heading slightly north of due west, but if that dry air doesn't last long and it intensifies a lot, then this might not be as scary for Hawaii as initially predicted. Even the GFS now turns it straight north before making landfall. 'Ryan1000' 04:57, October 14, 2014 (UTC) :Well, it's a pity that Ana couldn't wait until next year, but at least we'll probably get our first ''Hurricane Ana ever from this storm. And our 13th consecutive hurricane, too. I love 2014; even for the inactive Atlantic, everything that has formed (bar TD 2) has been interesting at worst (Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Fay), and thrilling at best (Arthur, Edouard, Gonzalo). And don't get me started on the Pacific; Odile was a terrible storm, but aside from that, this is hands-down my favorite EPAC season by far. Even 2011 bows to 2014. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 13:37, October 14, 2014 (UTC) :::The GFS and Euro both take this storm very close, if not over, the Big Island of Hawaii by this weekend. If the atmosphere isn't as dry as it was initially thought, Ana might even have a shot at cat 2 or 3 by the time it nears the Big Island. It's quite possible that the Big Island could experience tropical storm conditions for the 2nd time this year, and 3rd time in history, if the current forecast turns out to be true. Ryan1000 18:56, October 14, 2014 (UTC) :::It's hard to tell if it's going to directly make landfall on the islands of Hawaii, but if it doesn't, it's path is still going to be uncomfortably close. Oh, and I agree Dylan, this is an amazing season. Even the Atlantic is amazing, although inactive, due to every storm so far (except Dolly) becoming hurricanes. This is one to watch. Stay safe, Hawaiians.leeboy100My Talk! 21:28, October 14, 2014 (UTC) Actually YE, contrary to what you were saying before, if Ana intensifies further, it might actually pass south of the islands instead of northeast of them, but either way Ana's forecast track is still nerve-wracking, as it'll still bring unpleasant conditions to the islands even if it only passes close. Now it's 65 mph/997 mbars, but it'll continue to get stronger over the next few days. Dylan, Dr. Masters stated in one of his latest blog posts that, although we're nearly a month behind the average date for our 7th named storm in ATL, we're a month ahead of the average date for the 6th hurricane. Back to Ana, if this becomes a hurricane, we'll only need 1 more later this month or November to tie the record of 16, and if Ana somehow becomes a major (god forbid it make landfall in Hawaii as one though), we'll have tied the record of 10 majors with 1992. What an incredible season it's been. Ryan1000 00:14, October 15, 2014 (UTC) : I think we have a potential major on our hands; Ana could bring some pretty rough conditions for Hawaii by the weekend. That is, unless it RI's, then it might just pass south of the island chain. I agree with you Ryan, this is an incredible and amazing season it's been so far.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 03:02, October 15, 2014 (UTC) ::As for its track, the stronger it gets more influence the trough will have and the higher the odds it hits Hawaii. CPHC track is way too slow for PR reasons. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] :::The track has been adjusted further, now it's expected to go towards Kauai and just clip the southern end of the Big Island. Or maybe they're underestimating it, and it'll turn further north. After all, these guys aren't as good as NHC. Ana is nearly a hurricane now, with winds of 70 mph, I expect it to become one later today. 'Ryan1000' 09:45, October 15, 2014 (UTC) :::How many shades of grey is Ana really seeing? Nahh, she thinks Hawaii is made up of 50 grey islands. rarity is best pony 18:11, October 15, 2014 (UTC) ::::Lol! Anyways, Ana should be a hurricane really soon, probably by next advisory. Hawaii should still look out.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 22:34, October 15, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Weakened to 65 mph, and forecast to pass south of the Islands as a minimal hurricane by now. 'Ryan1000' 11:20, October 16, 2014 (UTC) :::::::??? They still bring it very close to Kaui as a mid-grade TS. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 11:49, October 16, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Hawaii seems to be dodging a bullet here, and Ana's current intensity is 50 kt/1000 mbar. Big Island is currently under tropical storm watch, as Ana could still bring tropical storm-force winds to that area. At this point, I'm starting to doubt Ana will become a hurricane because she hasn't really managed to get her core fully established to become a hurricane, but we'll just have to see what happens regardless. Simlover123 19:27, October 16, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::Eh, at this point in time it's more likely Ana will pass south of the Islands. It will probably deliver some rain, surf, and winds, but most of it should be non-damaging and the core should remain south of them unless the intensity of Ana changes quickly. I do hope it becomes a minimal hurricane though, it'd suck to see the hurricane streak end at Simon. 'Ryan1000' 19:48, October 16, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::Now it's predicted to just track away from the islands. Good, because with Gonzalo in the Atlantic we don't need destruction from Ana, just go back to building your snowman............without Elsa :( leeboy100My Talk! 23:59, October 16, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::I guess this won't impact Hawaii and instead will pass south of those guys. We don't need two TCs devastating land at the same time (Gonzalo and this)! Current forecast takes this to briefly becoming a hurricane Friday afternoon before weakening afterwards, whilst passing south of the Hawaiian island chain.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:36, October 17, 2014 (UTC) Heavy rain is still going to be a threat to the islands even though it probably won't make landfall, especially since this one is going to bring rain to all of the islands, not just the Big Island. Ana looks better than ever now, up to 70 mph and it'll probably become a hurricane by tomorrow. The hurricane streak is about to be extended to 13, and 15 total. 'Ryan1000' 17:20, October 17, 2014 (UTC) :I assume you didn't mean to make a header out of your comment, Ryan, so I fixed it for ya :P Though it ''is time for a new header, because... Hurricane Ana :...Ana is now a hurricane! 65 kts/990 mbar currently, forecast to peak at 70 kts. Hurricane streak extended to 13, but it should end with TD 20-E. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 22:35, October 17, 2014 (UTC) ::Ana's predicted to be a hurricane for a while longer, up until Sunday. All of Hawaii is in a tropical storm watch even though Ana might not do much to the islands. --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 05:05, October 18, 2014 (UTC) ::::Ana wasn't a hurricane just yet when I said that, but it is now. 13 consecutive hurricanes. Unless Trudy can Humbero out at the last second, it'll stop there. Good news, Ana will be passing Hawaii to the south. Bad news, they can still expect to see flooding and high winds from the outer rainbands. Ryan1000 09:34, October 18, 2014 (UTC) :::::The hurricane streak officially stopped since Trudy made landfall in Mexico without becoming a hurricane. That was the most massive hurricane streak I've ever seen in my life! Anyways, Ana could bring some slight Hawaiian impacts even though it's center will remain offshore. It's predicted to weaken to TS strength through Tuesday but by the end of the forecast it's predicted to restrengthen to a hurricane! Wait what? Is this trying to pull of a Genevieve (a much watered-down version of him)? --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 16:52, October 18, 2014 (UTC) ::::::I know that, Ryan; this is what I was referring to :P Anyway, Ana peaked at 75 kts/985 mbar last night but it's a little weaker now, 70/986. The GFDL wants this to become a 928 mbar, 135 kt Category 4 at around 28N in five days. Dafuq --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 17:02, October 18, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Steve, Genny is a she! :P In regards to Ana, shear is starting to get to her, and fortunately is expected to miss the Hawaiian Islands due to a couple of ridges around the hurricane. However, I would like to mention that based on Ana's tendency to creep closer to Hawaii, she could still cause gale-force winds for Oahu and Kauai, which has not happened in years. Swells and gusty winds should be all Hawaii gets, however. And apparently, there is some hot water northwest of Hawaii!!! Can someone please explain this? Anyway, I want to commend Ana for doing something she failed to do six times in the Atlantic - become a hurricane! Come on, Beryl, you're next! ;) AndrewTalk To Me 17:14, October 18, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::Gah, I can't believe I actually headed that whole statement. Big mistake on my part. >.< Ana is still south of Hawaii, there's been reports of flooding and mudslides but nothing too serious, not even as bad as Iselle earlier this year. Since Trudy didn't become a hurricane before hitting Mexico, our record consecutive hurricane streak ends with Ana, 13 in a row. If we can get 1 more major hurricane in the next two weeks (Vance or Winnie), we'll have tied the records of 16 hurricanes and 10 major hurricanes. An incredible year for the EPac, and quite an enjoyable one to track with the exception of Odile. Ryan1000 20:41, October 18, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::Hurricane watches issued for Nihoa and French Frigate Shoals. TS warning for Kauai County.--Isaac829 14:42, October 19, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::This seems a bit unusual, I don't think I've seen a strengthening hurricane this far north and striking the landmasses that Isaac mentioned. The forecast makes this weaken to 65 knots (75 mph) before restrengthening to 85 knots (100 mph) by the end of the forecast. Andrew, I guess that's ''why it's forecast to get stronger at such a high latitude! Apparantly there's some very warm water northwest of Hawaii that could allow Ana to possibly explode. Also Andrew, thanks for correcting that error, I kinda forgot about Genny's gender :P--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 15:18, October 19, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::::Although Ana is weakening, it remains a hurricane and is still bringing some rain to Hawaii. The relatively unpopulated French Frigate Shoals and Midway Islands northwest of Hawaii (with the exception of some military bases) shouldn't get too much from Ana. 'Ryan1000' 22:52, October 19, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Ana (2nd time) Down to 70 mph. Forecast to continue weakening from here, until it is northwest of Hawaii, by then Ana could become a hurricane again. 'Ryan1000' 05:51, October 20, 2014 (UTC) :As unrealistic as the GFDL solution (well, the run I mentioned above) may seem... I really hope it comes into fruition. Ana will be pointed at nothing but open ocean by then, and it would be our record-tying 10th major of the season. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 11:17, October 20, 2014 (UTC) ::This is completely irrelevant, but last night I had a dream that Beryl '12 was upgraded to a hurricane in re-analysis (might have been sparked by the fact that Ana and Beryl have never been hurricanes in the Atlantic). This morning (EDT) I went so far as to check Wikipedia and the NHC's site to make sure it was real. I think I'm on this wiki a little too often for my own good lol. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:39, October 20, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Hawaiians be like: "GO AWAY ANA!" ::::::Ana be like: "Ok bye" ::::::rarity is best pony 15:40, October 20, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Great dream you had there Dylan! :) And Liz it looks like Ana is listening to you, it's going away from Hawaii! Anywho, it should restrengthen to a hurricane by mid-week and the forecast weakens it back to a TS by the weekend as it gets into some high latitudes.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:28, October 21, 2014 (UTC) It seems that Ana has spared Hawaii from any significant impacts and she is now going into the Midway Islands northwest of Hawaii, where she'll die out soon enough. Iselle was far worse for Hawaii than Ana, and even that storm didn't cause too much damage, at least it seems. 'Ryan1000' 19:23, October 21, 2014 (UTC) :I must say that the shear has dealt a much greater blow to Ana than initially expected. At one point, Ana was forecast to be a minimal hurricane around this time; instead, it's a minimal tropical storm (35 kts/1005 mbar). I'm beginning to question if Ana will live to see the forecast extratropical transition, which I really want to happen because it's so rare for the EPAC. (Julio almost pulled it off, but it lost convection too quickly and died a tropical death instead.) For what it's worth, Ana has lived for 8 days, and it's forecast to make it to 12 before becoming extratropical. The longest time spent in the CPAC by a TC that formed there is 11.5 days, a record held by Uleki of 1988. We'll see what Ana does to challenge that record; it certainly seems to be making a concerted run at it. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:33, October 21, 2014 (UTC) ::It would be pretty cool if Ana can achieve that longevity feat. It's got a shot to make it, c'mon Ana! However, since the wind shear is ripping it apart, Ana might not restrengthen to hurricane status. CPHC takes it back up to 50 kts/60 mph before extratropical transition. Like you said above, it's rare for the EPac and I don't think I've ever seen that in the basin before. The Midway Islands might also feel some impacts but nothing significant. Well Ana, you're a weird system. I guess it won't restrengthen to hurricane status just because of this shear. But I still root for it to get as strong as possible during it's final show, c'mon Ana, it's still possible for you to become a hurricane IMO! ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) (I'd just thought I use that absolutely amazing emoticon) --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 01:10, October 22, 2014 (UTC) ::::It'll probably last a little longer before dissipating, although I don't expect Ana to restrengthen. If anything Ana might make it up to 45 mph or so before dying out, but at this point in time all it'll do is affect fish 'n ships (no pun intended) while it's well out to sea. Oh well, it was nice to track while it lasted. 'Ryan1000' 21:00, October 22, 2014 (UTC) :::::It continues to linger and should be extratropical by the weekend. After that the extratropical remnants are predicted to move to the northeast '''very' rapidly (o_o) and approach southeastern Alaska.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 04:01, October 23, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Still kinda just doing its thing. Up to 50 kts/999 mbar as it completes its 11th day of existence. Uleki's record is pretty much doomed to fall at this point. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 17:43, October 24, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Yeah, Uleki is about to give his crown to Ana. It keeps lingering but it should die soon. And the forecast takes it directly towards British Columbia as an extratropical system so they might need to look out for heavy rains! --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 23:26, October 24, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::More than just her intensity and longevity - Ana is actually trying to redevelop an eye in its eastern quadrant. Too bad it's over modest shear and marginal SST's; I would have loved to see another hurricane. Regardless, I applaud her for trying so hard and pulling a Karina out of the hat. Aside from a sewage spill in Honolulu Harbor, I doubt anything will be memorable from Ana. AndrewTalk To Me 02:22, October 25, 2014 (UTC) Hurricane Ana (2nd time) Ana made you eat your words, Andrew.--Isaac829 03:22, October 25, 2014 (UTC) :: And mine...why must they always do the unexpected? Oh well...looks like Ana is picking up speed though, it should begin weakening again very soon. Ryan1000 07:45, October 25, 2014 (UTC) :::Whoa, what just happened? Ana's winds are back up at 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h), and its pressure has fallen to 987 mbar (hPa; 29.15 inHg). On top of that, she has tied Uleki's record as the TC that spent the most time in the CPAC. What's going on? It looks Ana may try to reach North America - an anticyclone to its SE and the trough from the NW will make sure the hurricane has the pace to do so. Sadly, despite marginal shear conditions, Ana is forecast to weaken to a TS within the next several hours and lose a lot of its deep convection. Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) data supports extratropical transition tomorrow. However, Ana might be able to create more history. Assuming she passes 40N like the latest CPHC forecast graphic illustrates, it will be only the fifth EPAC or CPAC TC on record to maintain TC status north of that latitude, after Dot '70, the 1975 Pacific Northwest hurricane, John '94, Guillermo '97, and Wene '00. AndrewTalk To Me 13:41, October 25, 2014 (UTC) ::::It ate my words too. It actually restrengthened to a HURRICANE?? Didn't expect that :| --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 20:02, October 25, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Ana (3rd time) Back down to a TS (60 kts/986 mbar), but it's now a full day past Uleki's now-former record, lasting for 12.5 days thus far. Also, the latest advisory is Ana's 50th. Does anyone know of any other TCs that had the CPHC issue at least 50 advisories on them? --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:58, October 26, 2014 (UTC) : As far as I can remember, none have lasted longer in the CPac, but there have been a few storms in the EPac with more advisories. Also, their latest forecast takes it to British Columbia while still tropical. If that somehow manages to happen, Ana will be the northernmost landfalling storm on record in the EPac. Ryan1000 09:56, October 26, 2014 (UTC) ::Hurricane John in 1994 had some 120 advisories pinned to it, but this was across all three basins. Anyway, Ana has become much less symmetric, and tons of dry air and shear are being ingested into the system. Winds are down to 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h), with a pressure of 989 mbar (hPa; 29.21 inHg) per the CPHC. As SW flow steers Ana more NE, it should become extratropical tonight and merge with a stronger gale low. Ryan, that is an error on the CPHC's part; Ana should be absorbed into the low by then. Also, for trivia, Ana is the third strongest storm in EPAC history to exist north of 40N, after the unnamed 1975 hurricane and John '94. AndrewTalk To Me 12:59, October 26, 2014 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Ana And Ana's interesting, 12.75-day life draws to a close with the first extratropical transition in the EPAC/CPAC since... who knows? Hats off. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:50, October 26, 2014 (UTC) : Well there's no hope for it to make landfall now, but this was an interesting storm to track nonetheless. Now Vance is next in line... Ryan1000 18:14, October 26, 2014 (UTC) :: Ana's finally dead. It was a record-breaker and interesting storm, and is also the new CPac longevity record holder. Bye Ana!!! :) --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 19:40, October 26, 2014 (UTC)